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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."